汇率波动与居民消费:基于中国、美国、日本数据的检验  

Exchange Rate Fluctuations and the Resident Consumption: based on Date Test among China,the United States and Japan

作　　者：毛中根[1] 洪涛[2] 叶胥[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学消费经济研究所 [2]哈尔滨工业大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2014年第1期16-21,40,共7页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(08CJL007);国家自然科学基金(71373212;71103051);霍英东教育基金项目(131085);教育部"新世纪优秀人才支持计划"项目(NCET-12-0927)的资助

摘　　要：理论研究表明,国家之间资本和产品流动的渠道越通畅、风险共享程度越高,国内消费增长状况与货币币值波动状况的联系就越紧密。本文利用2001年第1季度至2010年第4季度中国、美国、日本的数据对此命题进行验证,研究结果表明:在2005年7月人民币汇率形成机制改革前后,中美、中日消费支出增长率之差与汇率变化率的关系发生了显著的转变,汇改前表现为不相关甚至负相关,汇改后表现为正相关;而美日情形则有所不同,消费支出增长率与汇率变化率关系一直表现为正相关。这为中国扩大居民消费需求提供了新的解决思路。According to theoretical studies,the domestic consumption growth and monetary currency fluctuations will be highly related while the circulation channels for capital and goods are much smooth,and the degree of risk sharing is higher. Using the data from first quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of 2010 of China,the United States and Japan to test this thesis,the research results show that: before and after the reform of the RMB exchange rate system in July 2005,the difference between Sino-US and Sino-Japanese in the relationship of consumer spending growth and variation of the exchange rate,had a significant shift that is, before exchange rate reform,it characterized by irrelevant or even negative correlation; After the reform,it showed the positive correlation. But situation of the US-Japan has been characterized by positive correlation. This provides a new solution to expanse the consumption in China.

关 键 词：汇率波动 居民消费 SBS检验 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学] F113.8F224