广州市供水总量与经济增长及城市化之间的关系探讨  

Research of Relationship between Water Supply and Economic Growth,Urbanization of Guangzhou City

作　　者：梁圆[1] 千怀遂[1] 李明霞[1] 郭瑞敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]广州大学地理科学学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2014年第1期145-148,共4页Water Resources and Power

摘　　要：鉴于广州市缺水、水污染、水生态环境恶化等日益突出的一系列问题，运用库兹涅茨曲线、协整理论和Granger因果关系检验方法，分析了广州市1981～2010年的供水总量与经济增长、城市化之间的关系及产生的原因。结果表明，供水总量与GDP曲线呈N型，且两者不存在因果关系；供水总量与城市化之间呈线性关系，并存在从供水总量到城市化的单向Granger因果关系。随着经济增长和城市化发展供水总量处于增加的阶段，供水不足将会阻碍城市化的发展。广州市应积极制定相应供水对策，提高用水效率，以便有效、合理地保护和利用水资源。In view of water shortage, water pollution and water ecological environment deterioration and a series of increasingly prominent issue, Kuznets curve, cointegration theory and Granger causality test are applied to analyze the re lationship between water supply and economic growth, urbanization for Guangzhou City during the period 1981 2010 and its causes. The results indicate that water supply and economic growth curve appears N-type; there is not causal relation- ship between water supply and economic growth; water supply and urbanization Kuznets curve appears a linear relation ship and there is unidirectional Granger causality running from water supply to the urbanization. Water supply is still in the phase that increased with the development of economic growth and urbanization. Shortage of water supply will hinder the development of the urbanization. Guangzhou City should formulate appropriate countermeasures of water supply ac- tively and improve the efficiency of water use so as to protect and utilize water resources effectively and reasonably.

关 键 词：供水总量 经济增长 城市化 库兹涅茨曲线 协整分析 广州市 

分 类 号：F299.24[经济管理—国民经济]