国际关系研究的定量方法:定义、规则与操作  

Quantitative Methods:Concepts,Principles,and Implementation

作　　者：庞珣[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学国际关系学系

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2014年第1期5-25,156,共21页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：王雪莲教育基金资助

摘　　要：随着国际关系数据的长期积累和中层理论及微观理论在国际关系研究中占据主导地位,定量方法已经成为国际关系学中最重要的研究方法之一,也是国际关系学者工具箱中的必备,正确理解和使用定量方法对促进学科的发展具有重要意义。有的国际关系研究者对定量方法存在一些误解,错误和不当使用也屡见不鲜。有鉴于此,作者具有针对性地对定量方法的概念、原则和操作进行基本介绍和重点澄清。定量方法具有透明度高、可重演性和明确程序化的优势,但不适用于探索规范性理论或寻找历史的真相。定量方法的使用者不但要清楚它能服务于什么目的,更要清楚定量方法功能的边界。定量方法在各个操作步骤上有具体的要求和原则,研究者需要严格遵循、诚实报告。只有正确而谨慎地使用定量方法,才能够达到推进学术的目的,也能够真正维护定量方法的声誉和前景。With a decades-long accumulation of empirical data and the dominance of middle-range and micro theories in IR studies,quantitative methods have become one of the most important research approaches in International Relations(IR)and the necessity in IR scholars' toolboxes.However,there are serious misunderstandings and misimplementation of quantitative methods that are frequently and repeatedly observed in the IR community and beyond.This paper is intended to introduce and clarify the most crucial concepts,principles and implementation rules of quantitative methods,especially those that are commonly neglected or misunderstood.The most well-known advantage of quantitative methods lies in their transparency,replicability,and standardization.But quantitative methods cannot be used to answer many types of questions,such as normative or historical research topics.The practitioners of quantitative methods have to keep in mind the clear boundaries and limitations of quantitative methods,abide by the rules and principles,and be honest and cautious.Strictly sticking to the rules and procedures is crucial for individual researchers to produce high-quality research and for the development of International Relations as a research field.

关 键 词：定量方法 实证主义 假设检验 科学方法 证伪 

分 类 号：D80[政治法律—政治学]