基于序贯蒙特卡罗方法的风电场有功出力可靠性评估  

RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF WIND FARM ACTIVE POWER BASED ON SEQUENTIAL MONTE-CARLO METHOD

作　　者：王昕伟[1] 张建华[1] 蒋程[1] 于雷[1] 刘德先[2] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学新能源电力系统国家重点实验室,北京102206 [2]海南电网公司,海口570203

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2014年第1期106-112,共7页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展(863)计划(2012AA050201)

摘　　要：考虑运行、停运和降额状态,建立风电机组的多状态故障模型;在此基础上,考虑风速的随机性、风电场尾流效应和风机本身的故障建立风电场的可靠性模型。基于序贯蒙特卡罗方法给出风电场有功出力可靠性评估的方法和流程。在Matlab中编写相关程序,并对风电场的有功出力进行可靠性评估,通过分析不同可靠性参数对评估结果的影响,验证所建可靠性模型和评估方法的有效性和适应性。The conventional deterministic methods have been unable to accurately assess the active power of wind farm being the random and intermittent of wind power, and the probabilistic methods commonly used to solve this problem. In this paper the multi-state fault model was built considering running, outage and derating state of wind turbine, and then the reliability model of wind farm was established considering the randomness of the wind speed, the wind farm wake effects and turbine failure. The probability assessment methods and processes of wind farm active power based on the Sequential Monte Carlo （SMC） method were given. The related programs were written in Matlab, and the probability assessment for wind farm active power was carried out, the effectiveness and adaptability of the proposed reliability models and assessment methods were illustrated by analysis of the effects of reliability parameters and model parameters on assessment results.

关 键 词：风电场 三状态 可靠性评估 序贯蒙特卡罗方法 

分 类 号：TM712[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]