我国人口城镇化现状的剖析--基于2010年人口普查数据  

On Current Situation of Population Urbanization in China:Based on the2010 population census data

作　　者：郭志刚 

机构地区：[1]北京大学中国社会发展研究中心 [2]北京大学社会学系

出　　处：《社会学研究》2014年第1期10-24,241-242,共15页Sociological Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“中国低生育率研究”(项目批准号:12JJD840005)的阶段成果

摘　　要：以往我国的人口城镇化和农村劳动力转移具有很强的年龄选择性。本文根据2010年人口普查数据分析了京津沪三个大城市和城镇地区的人口现状,揭示出我国城镇社会经济发展背后对吸纳农村年轻劳动力的重度依赖。然而,由于多年来生育率过低,全国及城乡的人口少子化和老龄化都非常突出,农村的劳动力供给能力正在迅速消蚀,不再是无限的劳动力源泉,以前那种高度年龄选择性的人口城镇化模式难以为继。因此,在制定未来人口城镇化政策时,必须清醒地认识到我国人口格局的这种变化和人口迅猛老龄化的前景。In China,population urbanization and transfer of rural labor force in the past 30 years are characterized by a distinctive trait of age selectivity.By showing the current population pyramids of the usual residents in the three metropolitans of Beijing,Tianjin and Shanghai,and those in urban areas of the country,this paper reveals the severe dependence behind socio-economic development in urban areas upon absorbing rural youth labor.However,the fertility rates in China have been very low over the years,so that fewer children and population aging are very prominent for both urban and rural population.As the results,labor supply capacity of the rural population has been rapidly eroded,rural population is no longer infinite labor source,and the previous pattern of age selective urbanization is no longer sustainable.Therefore,changes of age structure and the rapid population aging must be recognized and taken into full account in the formulation of urbanization policy.

关 键 词：人口城镇化 城乡年龄结构 劳动力转移 低生育率 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]