基于东亚对华FDI的技术进步对我国农业的影响研究  

Impact of technological progress based on FDI from East Asia on China's agriculture

作　　者：赵亮[1,2] 穆月英[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2014年第1期1-12,共12页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71073158)

摘　　要：通过理论分析并运用可计算的一般均衡模型(CGE)模拟基于外国直接投资(FDI)的技术进步对我国农业的影响.结果表明:随着东亚区域经济合作,基于自由贸易区的对华FDI逐步增加;农业及其要素生产部门技术进步会促进农业部门及其出口不同程度的增加,蔬菜和肉奶等产品出口增幅较大,同时实际工资水平和居民消费总值的降低;基于农业要素生产部门技术进步的各经济指标对其弹性相对较大;农业部门技术进步越大,地区产出增长差异越大,而农业要素生产部门相对农业部门的技术进步造成的地区发展不平衡更大.This paper simulated the influence of technological progress based FDI on China＇s agriculture through theoretical analysis and CGE model. The results show： With the East Asian regional economic cooperation, there were increasing FDI based on free trade area to China gradually; The technological progress of agriculture and their factors sectors would promote their production and exports. Vegetables, meat and milk exports increased significantly, while real wages and aggregate consumer value dropped; The elasticity of economic indicators to technological progress based on agricultural factors sector were relatively large; The lager technological progress of agricultural sector, the greater regional differences in output growth, while the technological progress of agricultural factors sectors led to even more regional development unbalanced compared to agricultural sectors.

关 键 词：东亚 外国直接投资(FDI) 可计算一般均衡模型(CGE) 技术进步 农业 

分 类 号：F313[经济管理—产业经济]