货币财政政策风险组合与影响效果  

Fiscal and monetary policy risk mix and its effectiveness

作　　者：王雪标[1] 王新翠[1] 周生宝[1] 姜凤利[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2014年第1期45-53,共9页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71273044;71173029);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大研究项目(2009JJD790004);科技部创新方法(2009IM010400)

摘　　要：本文利用随机动态均衡模型,分别在不同的货币财政政策风险组合搭配条件下,通过数值分析,探讨了货币财政政策及其所伴随的风险对增长率、预期通胀率的政策效果.研究结果表明,不同的经济环境下,不同的货币财政政策风险组合搭配效果是不同的.货币政策对产出政策效果的影响与财政政策对产出政策效果的影响几乎相同,而货币政策对预期通胀政策效果的影响比财政政策对预期通胀政策效果的影响更明显.货币与财政政策效果之间相互作用、相辅相成.货币政策与财政政策的配合可以使经济保持稳定、持续增长.This paper numerically analyzed the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies, and their associated risks on growth rate, inflation rate under the different monetary and fiscal policy risk mix respectively by using equilibrium in a stochastic dynamic optimal model. The research results show that the effect of different monetary fiscal policy risk mix are different in different economic conditions. The policy effect of fiscal policy on output is more significant than the effect of monetary policy, and the policy effect of monetary policy on inflation expectation is more significant than the effect of fiscal policy. Monetary and fiscal policies are interactive and complementary. Monetary policy and fiscal policy mix can remain the economy stable and sustainable growth.

关 键 词：政策搭配 政策效果 随机增长 数值分析 

分 类 号：F11[经济管理—国际贸易]