最终需求对经济拉动效率的变化  

Analysis on economic efficiency of final demand

作　　者：段玉婉[1] 蒋雪梅[1] 陈锡康[1] 杨翠红[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院管理、决策与信息系统重点实验室,北京100190

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2014年第1期64-69,共6页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委国际合作重大项目(70810107020);国家自然科学基金(61273208,71125005,71103176)

摘　　要：本文利用更映加工贸易的非竞争型投入产出模型测算发现2002年到2007年最终需求对中国GDP的拉动效率有所下降,为分析其下降的原因,文章针对区域间投入产出表的特征,提出了一种改进的结构分解分析(SDA)方法.该方法将列昂惕夫逆矩阵分解为替代效应和制造效应,并分解出了各个区域对拉动效率下降的贡献.研究发现内资企业国内品增加值率下降和最终使用结构变化是最终需求对GDP拉动效率下降的主要原因,而外资企业产品对进口品的替代则有利于提高最终需求对经济的拉动效率.This paper finds that value added induced by per unit of final demand has decreased in China from 2002 to 2007, by employing non-competitive input-output model capturing processing trade. To explore the reason why it decreased, the paper proposes a modified structural decomposition analysis （SDA） method, considering the characteristic of multi-regional input-output table. By using this method, one not only can decompose the technology coefficients into substitution effect and fabrication effect, but also can evaluate the contribution of each region to the change of dependent variables. The results show that decreasing value-added ratio and change of final demand structure of domestic enterprises＇ products are the main causes of the decrease. Meanwhile, substitution of foreign invested enterprises＇ products to imports has inhibited this decline effectively.

关 键 词：结构分解 直接消耗系数 替代效应 制造效应 

分 类 号：F223[经济管理—国民经济]