高炮武器系统毁伤概率计算的蒙特卡罗法  

Damage probability calculation of antiaircraft gun weapon system by Monte Carlo method

作　　者：陶德进[1,2] 王军[1] 朱凯[1] 薄煜明[1] 郭治[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学自动化学院,南京210094 [2]中国电子科技集团第二十八研究所,南京210007

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2014年第1期268-272,共5页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(61104197);部委预先研究基金(40405070103);博士点基金博导类(20113219110027)

摘　　要：为了更准确地计算高炮武器系统的毁伤概率,将射击误差依误差源进行了分解;分析了同一误差源所导致射击误差分量的时间共有性(相关性);对共用火控和独立火控的高炮武器系统,分析了射击误差分量的空间共有性(重复性);给出了弱相关误差序列的随机生成方法;在上述基础上,给出了毁伤概率计算的蒙特卡罗法;将基于误差时间和空间共有性分析的蒙特卡罗法与现有算法进行了对比.In order to calculate the damage probability of antiaircraft gun weapon system more accurately, the shooting errors were separated according to error sources. The time community （correlation） of the shooting error components caused by the same error source was analyzed. For antiaircraft gun weapon systems with common fire control subsystem and with independent fire control subsystem, the space community （repetitiveness） of the shooting error components was analyzed. The generation method of weak correlated error series was given. Based on the above, the damage probability calculation method by Monte Carlo method was given. The contrastive study was made between the Monte Carlo method based on time and space community analysis of errors and those existing methods.

关 键 词：高炮 毁伤概率 蒙特卡罗 

分 类 号：TJ35[兵器科学与技术—火炮、自动武器与弹药工程]