中国粮食经济进入新的阶段:特征、原因和对策  

China's Grain Economy Entering A New Stage: Characteristics, Reasons and Solutions

作　　者：武拉平[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院 [2]中国农村政策研究中心,北京100083

出　　处：《农业经济与管理》2014年第1期28-34,共7页Agricultural Economics and Management

基　　金：教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-11-0487);商务部"制定粮食安全议题谈判方案的研究"(21083068)

摘　　要：受供求两方面因素的影响,我国粮食经济进入一个新的阶段,其典型特征是生产的约束性和风险性、需求的刚性和不确定性、流通的波动性和进口的依赖性等。分析表明,城市化和工业化是推动我国粮食经济进入新阶段的直接动力,全球化是我国粮食经济进入新阶段的重要外部影响力,自然与气候的极端变化和本轮全球经济危机则加速了新阶段的到来。本次经济危机以来,特别是2010年后,我国农产品开始全范围、大规模进口,标志着新阶段的开始。为确保我国粮食安全,政府应充分利用国际市场实现从"粮食安全"到"口粮安全"、从"粮食安全"到"食物安全"的转变。Influenced by the factors from both grain supply and demand, China＇s grain economy has entered a new phase, characterized by its more production constraints and risk, faster increase in demand and its uncertainty, bigger fluctuation of grain markets and higher import dependence. The research showed that： urbanization and industrialization were the fundamental drivers to promote China＇s grain economy entering a new stage. The globalization was an important external factor to push China＇s grain economy to the new stage, the extreme nature and climate changed and the current global economic crisis has accelerated the China＇s new stage. Since this round economic crisis, especially after 2010, many kinds of grain products had been imported, including the typical export grain-maize, which could be seen as the beginning of a new stage. To ensure China＇s food security, the government should realize the changes from ＂grain security＂ to ＂food grain security＂ and from the ＂grain security＂ to ＂food security＂, and keep high grain self-sufficiency rate, meanwhile, to take full advantages of the international market.

关 键 词：粮食经济 工业化 城市化 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]