经济增长目标的策略性调整  

Strategical Adjustment of Growth Target

作　　者：徐现祥[1] 梁剑雄[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学岭南学院,邮政编码510275

出　　处：《经济研究》2014年第1期27-40,共14页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基项目(71373290);国家社会科学基金项目(13CJY031)的资助

摘　　要：本文旨在考察地方官员在中央调整经济结构时的增长行为。在理论上,本文证明了,当中央可信地从做大蛋糕转向调整区域经济结构时,将采取偏向欠发达地区的经济政策,地方官员会策略性调整经济增长目标;当调结构政策受惠面足够大时,发达地区官员会选择相对放缓辖区经济增长目标。在实证上,本文采用2001—2012年间省级政府工作报告所报告的增长目标和1996—2015年间五年规划所规划的增长目标,发现增长目标主导着省际差距的变动;当中央大规模调整区域经济结构后,发达省份开始相对放缓辖区增长目标。本文的发现是稳健的,为中国经济增长近年所呈现出的新现象——东部经济增长放缓、省际经济差距缩小、中央实施偏向内陆的区域协调发展政策——提供了一种解释。The paper investigates the mechanism underlying the new phenomena in the recent process of China＇s economic growth, which includes that economic growth in the coastal area is slowing down; interprovincial dispersion is narrowing down; inland-biased structural reform is implementing. Theoretically, the paper builds a simple model of the interest conflict between the rich region and the central who starts to undertake the poor-biased structural reform. The key feature is that the rich region may strategically slow down its growth target and actually narrow the gap between the rich and poor region. Empirically, using a new panel data on annual growth target from the provincial government reports in the period of 2001--2012 and 5 - year-aveagre growth target from the provincial 5 - year planning in the period of 1996--2015, the paper finds that the growth target was the dominant engine of the trend of interprovincial dispersion, and that the growth targets of the developed provinces were lowered after implementation of the inland-biased struetural reform. These findings are robust and consistent with predictions of the model and the new phenomena.

关 键 词：经济增长 增长目标 调结构 

分 类 号：F124.1[经济管理—世界经济]