灰色GM(1,1)模型在辽宁省货运量预测中的应用  

Application of GM(1,1) in Forecasting of Freight Transportation Volume of Liaoning

作　　者：李秀兰[1] 刘广智[2] 

机构地区：[1]大连工业大学管理学院,辽宁大连116034 [2]大连大学信息工程学院,辽宁大连116622

出　　处：《物流技术》2013年第11期184-186,共3页Logistics Technology

摘　　要：利用灰色系统理论方法对辽宁省货运量进行预测。首先对辽宁省货运量进行概况分析,并建立灰色GM(1,1)模型得到预测函数,同时将模拟的预测数据与真实数据进行对比,以确保预测模型的真实可信性。最后对未来几年辽宁省货运量进行预测,得到预测数值并加以分析。In this paper, we used the grey system theory to predict the freight volume of Liaoning. First we analyzed the general situation of the freight transportation volume of the province, established the forecasting function based on GM（1,1）, and then compared the estimates from the simulation to the actual data to ensure the accuracy of the model. At the end, we applied the model to forecasting the freight transportation volume of Liaoning for the next fewyears.

关 键 词：灰色系统 辽宁省货运量 灰色GM(1 1)模型 预测 

分 类 号：F252.21[经济管理—国民经济]