一种卫星对地观测任务完成概率的估计模型  

An enforceability probability estimation model for satellite observing tasks

作　　者：李志猛[1] 谈群 刘刚[1] 郭少阳[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学信息系统工程重点实验室 [2]95980部队

出　　处：《国防科技大学学报》2013年第6期185-190,共6页Journal of National University of Defense Technology

基　　金：国家部委资助项目

摘　　要：针对及时响应用户提出的观测需求和高效实施卫星任务规划调度的需要,提出快速估计卫星对地观测任务完成可能性的现实问题,利用Logistic回归方法建立了一种卫星对地观测任务完成概率的估计模型。分析影响侦察任务完成概率的相关因素,包括侦察任务自身属性、资源约束、任务之间竞争关系等;从影响因素中提炼出刻画影响因素的模型变量,给出其量化方法,并初步构建了Logistic回归分析模型;基于卫星成像侦察任务规划系统开展实验,获取自变量与规划结果方面的样本数据;采用Logistic回归分析方法对样本数据进行分析,确定模型中的变量、参数及函数形式。结论表明,模型具有很好的统计特性。Abstract. The enforceability probability of satellite observation requires timely and accurate estimation to provide the fundamental basis for satellite task planning and scheduling. An estimation model of the enforceability probability of satellite earth observation is established based on the Logistic regression method. Firstly, the influence factors of observation enforceability probability were analyzed, including the property of observation task, resources limitation, competitive relations among tasks, etc. Secondly, independent variables were extracted and their quantitative methods were given, then the Logistic regression model was established. Thirdly, experiments were implemented on the planning and scheduling system of satellite imaging observation to obtain the sample data of independent variables and planning results. Moreover, the sample data was analyzed by using the Logistic regression method, and then the variables and parameters of the model and the function forms were all determined, Lastly, the effectiveness of the model was validated.

关 键 词：卫星对地观测 任务完成概率 LOGISTIC回归模型 

分 类 号：TN971[电子电信—信号与信息处理]