采用分式多项式模型估算饮用水中氟化物的安全阈值  

Using fractional polynomials to estimate the safety threshold of fluoride in drinking water

作　　者：潘申龄 安伟[1] 李红岩[1] 杨敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院生态环境研究中心环境水质学国家重点实验室,北京100085

出　　处：《卫生研究》2014年第1期27-31,共5页Journal of Hygiene Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(No.51290283,21277169);国家高技术研究发展计划(863)项目(No.2012AA062802)

摘　　要：目的研究全国饮水氟含量与氟斑牙患病率之间的剂量-效应关系,确定饮水氟的安全阈值。方法对2001-2002年全国地方性氟中毒重点病区调查数据进行Meta回归分析。首先利用分式多项式(FP)建立固定效应模型,确定最佳FP结构;然后采用限制极大似然法(REML)估计研究间方差,建立最佳随机效应模型。结果最佳FP结构为一阶对数变换。在最佳随机效应模型基础上,计算饮水氟的基准剂量(BMD)及其95%下限值(BMDL)分别为0.98和0.78 mg/L。饮水氟只可解释35.8%患病率的变异,其他因素中,病区类型是显著性因素,而气温条件和海拔高度是非显著性因素。结论基于分式多项式的Meta回归方法简单实用,拟合效果好。基于此,确定中国饮水氟的安全阈值为0.8 mg/L。Objective To study the dose-response relationship between fluoride content in drinking water and prevalence of dental fluorosis on the national scale, then to determine the safety threshold of fluoride in drinking water. Methods Meta-regression analysis was applied to the 2001-2002 national endemic fluorosis survey data of key wards. First, fractional polynomial（FP） was adopted to establish fixed effect model, determining the best FP structure, after that restricted maximum likelihood （REML） was adopted to estimate between-study variance, then the best random effect model was established. Results The best FP structure was first-order logarithmic transformation. Based on the best random effect model, the benchmark dose（BMD） of fluoride in drinking water and its lower limit（BMDL） was calculated as O. 98 mg/L and O. 78 mg/L. Fluoride in drinking water can only explain 35.8% of the variability of the prevalence, among other influencing factors, ward type was a significant factor, while temperature condition and altitude were not. Conclusion Fractional polynomial-based meta-regression method is simple, practical and can provide good fitting effect, based on it, the safety threshold of fluoride in drinking water of our country is determined as 0. 8mg/L.

关 键 词：饮水氟 氟斑牙 分式多项式 Meta回归 

分 类 号：R123.6[医药卫生—环境卫生学] R181.23[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]