中国贸易模式真的实现跨越式发展了吗  

Has China's Trade Pattern Really Taken a Great Leap Forward?

作　　者：丁小义[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工业大学经贸管理学院,浙江杭州310023

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2014年第1期32-43,共12页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：教育部人文社科项目(12YJC790031);浙江省自然科学基金项目(LQ13G030014)

摘　　要：文章基于出口的完全国内增加值和细分贸易数据,对我国近20年来的贸易模式变化进行考察。研究发现,在剔除进口中间投入品的贡献,用各部门的完全国内增加值系数对按Lall(2000)技术密集度商品分类的中国出口结构进行修整后,中国目前出口中占主导的仍是低技术产品而非高技术产品;同时,基于微观产品层面、细分贸易数据对中国进(出)口商品构成、技术含量及贸易品质的考察也表明,虽然中国的贸易模式正日益向更高层次发展,但中国的贸易模式与发达国家仍存在显著差距,中国的贸易模式并没有实现跨越式发展。By using the total domestic value-added share of exports and highly disaggregated trade data, this paper empirically analyzes China＇s trade pattern during the last 20 years. After taking away the imported input content of exports and re-measuring China＇s trade structure according to Lall （2000）, it finds that low-tech products rather than high-tech products are still dominated in China＇s exports currently. Meanwhile, import （export） similarity index, technological sophistication index and product quality index based on highly disaggregated trade data indicate that China＇s trade pattern has improved slowly, but still lags behind developed countries. Thus, China＇s trade pattern has not really taken a great leap forward.

关 键 词：贸易模式 完全国内增加值系数 进(出)口相似度 技术复杂度 贸易品质 

分 类 号：F740.6[经济管理—国际贸易]