中国铁矿石进口风险的量化评估——兼评进口多元化策略的成效  

A Quantifying Estimation of China's Iron Ore Import Risks

作　　者：张会清[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海立信会计学院高职学院,上海201620

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2014年第1期44-56,共13页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：上海市教委科研创新重点项目(13ZS135);上海市哲学社会科学规划项目(2010BJL001);上海市教委重点学科(第五期)建设项目(J51702)

摘　　要：文章基于风险指数模型，测算了中国铁矿石进口的系统风险指数和特定风险指数，并据此评价进口多元化策略的成效。研究发现，2002～2011年间，系统风险指数和特定风险指数均趋于上行．表明中国的铁矿石进口风险在不断积累，特别是国际价格大幅波动所引致的系统风险指数急速上升值得关注。由于进口来源地的拓展方向存在问题，导致进口多元化策略不仅没有起到预期的风险缓冲效果．反而有可能加重了进口风险。模拟结果显示，根据进口价格、国家风险、价格波动性指标合理选择多元化对象，将会有效降低进口贸易的特定风险，意味着中国铁矿石进口的来源地构成还有进一步优化的潜力。Based on risk index model, this paper estimates the systematic risk index and the specific risk index of China＇s iron ore imports. Then it evaluates the performance of import diversification strategy. The findings reveal that both systematic risk index and specific risk index incline to rise from 2002 to 2011, indicating the accumulation of China＇s iron ore import risk. Particularly, we should pay more attention to the rapid increase of systematic risk index caused by the sharp fluctuation of intemational prices. Since there are some problems about extending import origins, import diversification strategy does not generate the expected effect of cushioning risks, but instead, it may aggravate import risks. The simulation results suggest that if import firms could select trade partners properly based on the indicators of import price, country risk and price volatility, the specific import risk would be reduced effectively, which shows that there is a potential to further optimize the origin structure of importing iron ores.

关 键 词：风险指数模型 系统风险 特定风险 进口多元化 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]