改进综合气象干旱指数对广西农业干旱的适用性分析  

Suitability analysis of improved comprehensive meteorological drought index for agricultural drought in Guangxi

作　　者：陆甲[1] 李广海 李艳兰[1] 何洁琳[1] 李耀先[3] 廖雪萍[3] 

机构地区：[1]广西气候中心,南宁530022 [2]南宁市气象局,南宁530028 [3]广西气象减灾研究所,南宁530022

出　　处：《南方农业学报》2013年第12期2007-2013,共7页Journal of Southern Agriculture

基　　金：广西自然科学基金项目(2011GXNSFA018008)

摘　　要：【目的】分析改进综合气象干旱指数（IM_CI）对广西农业干旱的监测评估效果，探讨改进综合气象干旱指数对广西农业干旱监测评估的适用性。【方法】利用广西89个台站的气象资料，使用农田土壤水分平衡方程（FSWB）、改进综合气象干旱指数（IM_CI）分别模拟监测1961-2010年的广西农业干旱情况，对比分析两种指数的应用效果。【结果】IM_CI对农业干旱的历史灾情、典型过程的旱情演变、季节干旱频率的时空特征及季节的干湿特点有较好的描述，总体优于FSB。【结论】IM_CI对广西农业干旱的监测评估效果较好，适用于广西农业的干旱监测评估。【Objective】Effects of improved comprehensive meteorological drought index（IM_CI） on monitoring and evaluating agricultural drought were analyzed and the suitability of（IM_CI） on the agricultural drought monitoring and assessment was explored in Guangxi. 【Method】Based on the data of 89 meteorological stations in Guangxi, using Field Soil Water Balance model （FSB） and （IM_CI） to simulate the agricultural drought in Guangxi during 1961-2010, the application effect and suitability of each drought index were analysed and compared. 【Result】The agricultural drought disaster in the history, drought evolution during heavy process, temporal and spatial characteristics of drought frequency,dry and wet seasonal characteristics were better described by IM_CI,and overall IM_CI was superior to FSWB. 【Conclusion】The application effect of IM_CI is fairly good, hence it is suitable to monitor and assess the agricultural drought in Guangxi.

关 键 词：农业干旱 农田土壤水分平衡 改进综合气象干旱指数 干旱监测评估 广西 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学]