1955-2010年松花江流域不同区段径流量变化影响因素定量评估  

Quantification of impacts of precipitation and human activities on runoff changes in different sections of Songhua River during 1955-2010

作　　者：王彦君[1,2] 王随继[1] 苏腾[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2014年第1期65-75,共11页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41271027);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2010CB428404)

摘　　要：为了定量区分气候变化和人类活动对松花江流域不同区段径流量变化的影响程度,应用线性趋势分析、累积距平等方法,对流域内4个不同区段1955-2010年径流量序列进行分析,揭示了径流量在各区段呈现不同的规律。其中江桥以上、江桥—大赉和哈尔滨—佳木斯3个区段各存在3个突变点以及被其分割的4个变化阶段,而大赉—哈尔滨区段只有一个突变点。应用累积量斜率变化率比较方法,在不考虑蒸散的情况下,定量估算了不同阶段降水和人类活动对径流量的影响程度,并探讨了主要人类活动因素的影响。结果表明:与基准期(T1)相比,人类活动对径流量的变化起着主导作用,其中江桥以上、江桥—大赉和哈尔滨—佳木斯3个区段人类活动对径流量变化的影响程度在T2、T3、T4(1998-2010年)3个阶段分别为75%、95%和80%;而降水的影响程度分别为25%、5%和20%;大赉—哈尔滨区段T2时期降水和人类活动对径流的影响程度分别为25%和75%;主要与不同区段人口变动和水利工程修建这两项人类活动相关。The surface runoff of some rivers in the world has decreased significantly with global or regional cli- mate changes and increasing human activities, which has caused severe eco-environmental problems. The Song- hua River is a large river in Asia and its basin is an important bread basket in China. The runoff of the whole riv- er basin and in different sections has experienced dramatic changes over the last few decades. It is necessary to study the trend of the runoff changes and quantify the influencing factors on the changes. Based on annual run- off data at 4 gauging stations in the mainstream of the river and annual precipitation data from 61 meteorological stations in and around the river basin during 1955-2010, a decreasing trend of annual runoff and precipitation for four sections （above Jiangqiao, Jiangqiao-Dalai, Dalai-Haerbin and Haerbin-Jiamusi） was revealed using the lin- ear trend method. The cumulative anomaly was employed to detect the abrupt changes of each runoff series. Three inflexion years for the runoff incremental changes were detected and they divided the entire period into four parts： above Jiangqiao （1963, 1982 and 1998）, Jiangqiao-Dalai （1962, 1985 and 1998）, Haerbin-Jiamusi （1966, 1980 and 1998）, and only one turning year （1988） was found in Dalai-Haerbin section. The first period （T0 is regarded as the baseline period; the others are measurement periods. Without considering the effect of evapotranspiration, the slope change ratio of cumulative quantity （SCRCQ） was adopted to estimate the impacts of precipitation and human activities on runoff changes for the sections. In above Jiangqiao （T2：1964-1982, T3： 1983-1998）, Jiangqiao-Dalai （T2： 1963-1985, T3： 1986-1998） and Haerbin-Jiamusi （T2： 1967-1980, T3： 1981-1998） sections, the impacts of human activities on runoff incremental decrease were 71%-88%, 94%-97% and 72%-85%, respectively, while those of precipitation were 12%-29%, 3%-6% and 15%-28%, respectively, for the measurement periods

关 键 词：径流变化 突变年份 降水量 人类活动 松花江流域 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]