1982-2010年中国县域经济发展时空格局演变  

Evolution of spatial-temporal pattern of county economic development in China during 1982-2010

作　　者：周扬[1,2] 李宁[1,2,3] 吴文祥[4] 吴吉东[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875 [3]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [4]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2014年第1期102-113,共12页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家重大科学研究计划(973计划)项目(2012CB955402);国家自然科学基金项目(41171401);科技部国际合作项目(2012CB955402)

摘　　要：研究县域经济发展格局对揭示区域经济发展空间演化机制和实现县域经济的可持续发展具有重要的理论意义。基于中国2352个县域单元1982、1990、2000和2010年的人均GDP数据,采用空间关联技术和变差函数分析了近30年来中国县域经济发展格局的演化特点并探讨了其演化机制。结果表明:中国县域经济发展和增长存在正的空间自相关性;1982年以来,经济发展的空间集聚程度逐渐增加,空间依赖程度增强;东部和华北北部地区是县域经济发展的热点区;县域经济发展存在空间呈异质性,经济发展的空间分异格局中的随机成分随时间推移不断降低;中国东南—西北向经济发展的均质性相对较好,空间差异较小;历史基础、经济区位、资源禀赋和区域发展政策等是中国县域经济发展格局演化的主要驱动因素。Studying the spatio-temporal pattern of county economic development is extremely important for re- vealing the evolutionary mechanism of regional economy and achieves the sustainable development of China＇s county economy. Although considerable research attention has examined the regional economic pattern of China at the provincial and national levels in a certain time, we currently know the least about the profiles of county economic development across different periods. There is general agreement in the regional geography communi- ty that understanding the dynamic pattern of county economic development can provide a scientific base for the policy making and the implementation of regional development planning. Thus, the spatio-temporal pattern of county economic development in China merit further investigation. Based on the 2352 counties＇ per capita GDP in 1982, 1990, 2000 and 2010, the spatial autocorrelation analysis and variogram were used to investigate the evolutionary characteristics of spatiotemporal patterns of county economic development and to explore the possi- ble mechanism behind the changes in the spatial pattern. Results showed that the county economic development and growth exhibit a positive spatial autocorrelation, which indicates that some counties with similar economic development levels clustered. But the spatial autocorrelation of the economic growth over the past three decades was not obvious. Since 1982, the spatial concentration of the county economy increased gradually and the spa- tial dependence enhanced over time. The difference of county economic development in eastern area of China is greater than that in the middle and western regions. In all four studied years, there are nine county units with a ＂high-high＂ pattern of economic development, i.e., Wujin, Kunshan, Dantu, Taicang, Changshu and Wuxi. Mean- while, there are about forty-three county units maintaining their locations of ＂low-low＂ pattern of economic de- velopment for all studied years. Furthermore investigatio

关 键 词：县域经济发展 时空格局 空间自相关 变差函数 中国 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] F224