我国经济周期波动及其成因分析  

Periodical Business Fluctuation in China and Its Reasons

作　　者：李华[1] 

机构地区：[1]郑州航空工业管理学院法律系,郑州450015

出　　处：《河南科学》2013年第12期2266-2268,共3页Henan Science

基　　金：国家软科学计划项目(2010GXS5D234);河南省软科学研究计划项目(122400420053)

摘　　要：利用markov机制转换状态空间模型的平滑概率对中国经济周期的波动特征进行了分析研究,研究结果表明,经济扩张的平滑概率较好地刻画了中国经济周期波动的特征,研究表明改革开放前后,经济周期的波动存在明显差异,非对称特征比较明显.The periodical business fluctuation in China was studied by using Markov state-space for machining transition of smooth probability. The results proved the ecnomics traits of periodical business fluctuation in China is described very well by smooth probability of economic expand. Before and after reforming and opening, periodical business fluctuation existes transparent difference, and the symmetrical traits is obvious.

关 键 词：经济周期 差异分析 成因分析 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]