辽宁省基本医疗保险筹资额的预测模拟  

The Prospective and Simulation on the Financing Amount of Basic Medical Insurance in Liaoning

作　　者：关理[1] 董叶菁[2] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳医学院计算机教学部,沈阳110034 [2]中国医科大学,沈阳110001

出　　处：《中国卫生经济》2014年第1期29-31,共3页Chinese Health Economics

摘　　要：目的:利用系统动力学方法就辽宁省2013—2022年间基本医保筹资额及相关指标给予二次指数平滑模拟与预测;方法:先用事后法进行试预测并选择最佳α值,再将二次指数平滑过程映射到系统动力学软件中,得出预测结果;结果:模拟终期省医保资金额及相关指标将增至2013年的2倍左右,个人现金卫生支出将大幅下降;结论:我省整体经济增长较快,基本医疗保障水平稍显不足。Objective： Using system dynamics to provide prospective and simulation of double exponential smoothing on Basic Medical Insurance Fund and related indexes from 2013-2022 in Liaoning. Methods： Using the post testing to select the best value of α and projecting the whole procedure of forecast into the software of system dynamics to get the prospective result. Results： In ending of simulation, the increase of fund and other objects will reach about 2 times as much as those in 2013 , and out-of-pocket in total expenditure on health will be declined greatly, Conclusion： The economy of province is developing fast while Basic Medical Insurance is in relatively lower level

关 键 词：基本医疗保险 卫生总费用 指数平滑法 系统动力学 建模 辽宁 

分 类 号：F842.684[经济管理—保险]