基于均衡分析的我国房地产泡沫度分析  

An Analysis on the Degree of Real Estate Bubbles in China Based on the Equilibrium Analysis

作　　者：许春青[1] 田益祥[1] 

机构地区：[1]电子科技大学经济与管理学院,四川成都610054

出　　处：《财经理论与实践》2014年第1期113-119,共7页The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学资助项目(12YJA790125)

摘　　要：基于均衡分析得到一个检测房地产价格合理性的理论参照,通过将计算出的房地产泡沫度在时间上做纵向对比以及在不同地区间做横向对比,考察现阶段我国房地产泡沫的严重程度。结果表明,现阶段我国大陆总体上的房地产泡沫度与房地产过热阶段的1993年相差不大,与楼市高峰时的香港有不小的差距;我国内地省市的房地产泡沫度一般较低,部分沿海地区接近或超过了楼市高峰时的香港。Based on the equilibrium analysis, this paper derived a theoretical reference testing the rationality of real estate price, and studied the seriousness of real estate bubble in China by comparing the degree of real estate bubble at different times and in different districts. Our study shows that the current degree of real estate bubble of China's Mainland is close to that in 1993 and far less serious than that of Hong Kong in 1997. The degree of real estate bubble is generally lower in inland China, and is close to or more than that of Hong Kong in 1997 in parts of coastal areas.

关 键 词：房地产基本价值 房地产价格 均衡分析 泡沫度 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]