金融发展对服务贸易出口结构的溢出效应——基于出口复杂度算法的实证研究  

Spillover Effect of Financial Development to the Structure of Export Trade in Services ——Based on the Empirical Study of Export Sophistication

作　　者：李华敏[1] 黄娟[1] 刘惠[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学国际商学院,陕西西安710062

出　　处：《经济与管理》2014年第1期84-89,共6页Economy and Management

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助科研项目(2010ZYGX006)

摘　　要：基于服务贸易出口复杂度的算法,选取中国2000—2012年相关数据,分析金融发展对服务贸易出口结构的溢出效应。结果表明:短期内,金融发展对服务贸易出口结构没有影响,不存在溢出效应;长期内,金融发展能显著促进服务贸易出口结构的优化,但其溢出效应具有滞后性;金融发展对服务贸易出口结构存在单向因果关系,服务贸易出口结构不会影响金融发展。基于此,实现中国金融业发展对服务贸易出口结构长期可持续溢出效应,应完善金融体系,做大做强金融业;合理引导金融机构贷款投放,加大信贷支持;推进多层次资金市场,拓宽投融资渠道。Based on the export sophistication of service trade and selected data in China during 2000-2012, this paper analyzes spillover effects of financial development on structure of export trade in services. The results show： In the short-run, financial development does not affect structure of export trade in services. In the long-run, financial development can promote the upgrading of export structure in services significantly, but the promotion is hysteretic. Financial development and export structure in services is unidirectional causality; export structure in services will not affect the development of finance. Based on this, the development of the financial industry to realize Chinese export structure of service trade long-term sustainable spillover effect, should improve the financial system, bigger and stronger financial industry; a reasonable guide financial institutions to increase loans, credit support; promote muhi-level capital market, expand investment and financing channels.

关 键 词：金融发展 服务贸易 出口复杂度 出口结构 

分 类 号：F746[经济管理—国际贸易]