黄淮海流域径流量变化及其对降水变化的响应  

Runoff Variations and Its Responses to Precipitation Changes in Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin

作　　者：王国庆[1,2] 王勇[2,3] 张明[1,4] 

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210029 [2]水利部应对气候变化研究中心,江苏南京210029 [3]水利部规划计划司,北京100053 [4]安徽工程大学建筑工程学院,安徽芜湖241000

出　　处：《人民黄河》2014年第1期52-54,共3页Yellow River

基　　金：国家"973"计划项目(2010CB951103);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41330854;41371063);江苏省"333工程"培养资金资助项目(BRA2012203);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(Y513009);水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室开放研究基金联合资助项目(2011492011)

摘　　要：采用统计分析方法研究了黄淮海流域实测径流量的变化及其对降水变化的响应关系。结果表明:黄淮海流域气温呈现显著性升高趋势,平均线性变化趋势率为0.19℃/10 a;黄河中下游及海河流域降水为非显著性减少趋势,淮河和黄河源区降水量为略增加趋势。受气候变化和人类活动的影响,黄淮海流域10个重点水文站实测径流量均呈现不同程度的减少趋势,其中黄河中下游和海河流域实测年径流量减少趋势显著。降水是河川径流变化的主导因素,黄河中下游及海河流域不同阶段降水径流关系差异明显,淮河流域不同阶段的降水径流关系差异相对较小,人类活动通过改变降水径流之间的响应关系对河川径流产生重要影响。Adopting statistical analysis method, this paper studied on the variations of the recorded runoff and its responses to precipitation changes in the Huang-Huai-Hai river basin. The results indicate that annual temperature presents significant rising trend with mean linear rising rate of 0.19 ℃/10 a; precipitation is characterized by insignificant decreasing in the Middle and Lower Yellow River and the Haihe River basin and slightly in- creasing in the source area of the Yellow River and the Huaihe River basin. Due to the influences of climate change and human activities, the meas- ured runoffs at 10 key hydrometric stations have different decline trends and the measured annual runoff decreases significantly in the Middle and Lower Yellow River and the Haihe River basin. Precipitation plays a dominant role in fiver runoff yield. Differences in relationships between runoff and precipitation for different phases are obvious in the Middle and Lower Yellow River and the Haihe River basin, and are relatively small in the Huaihe River basin. Hmnan activities have the important influence on runoff through changing the relationship between precipitation and runoff.

关 键 词：气候变化 河川径流量 降水变化 黄淮海流域 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]