基于系统仿真的网上信用风险感知及其影响因素研究  

Perceived Trust Risk Online and Its Influencing Factors Based on System Simulation Experiment

作　　者：魏明侠[1] 夏雨[1] 程梦来[1] 肖开红[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南工业大学管理学院

出　　处：《管理学报》2014年第2期254-260,266,共8页Chinese Journal of Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70302006);河南省教育厅人文社科基金资助项目(2013-ZD-013);河南省高校人文社科重点基地资助项目(2011-JD-016)

摘　　要：从在线交易交易者感知的视角出发,应用系统动力学理论,分析网上信用风险感知的影响因素,构建了网上信用风险感知系统。基于此,根据该系统各影响因素间的关系建立相应的系统动力学模型;并以交易次数为模拟单位,通过Vensim软件,模拟了100次在线交易过程中感知信用风险率的变化趋势。研究表明:感知信用风险对于商家信用和交易者的受骗经历较为敏感,其次为交易额和个人防范能力,而对于信用服务收费率(OTS价格)的变动最不敏感。From the perspective of online trading traders perception, applying system dynamics theory, this paper analyzes the factors which influence the perception of online trust risk, and constructs the cognitive system of online trust risk. And then system dynamics model of the cognitive system of online trust risk is built according to the relationship among the elements of the system. Taking the number of transactions as the simulation unit and using Vensim software, this article demonstrates the evolution trend of perceived trust risk rate in the process of 100 online transactions. The work reveals that perception of trust risk is more sensitive to business＇ trust and the traders＇ experience of being cheated, than to other factors. The volume of transactions and the personal ability to guard against are the secondary factors sensitive on the perception of trust risk. The least sensitive factor on the perception of trust risk is online trust service rate.

关 键 词：电子商务 信用风险 系统动力学 

分 类 号：C93[经济管理—管理学] F713