警惕中国经济泡沫化——中国经济增长模式面临的严重挑战  

Be Vigilant to Chinese Economic Bubbles——The Serious Challenges that China's Economic Growth Model is Facing

作　　者：于学军[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏银监局,南京210004

出　　处：《科学发展》2014年第1期66-70,共5页Scientific Development

摘　　要：改革开放以来,中国经济35年增长主要是外向型经济拉动的。但2008年国际金融危机时间,中国出台的"4万亿"投资刺激计划,改变了中国原有的经济增长模式,投资在经济增长中的作用越来越重要。同时,带来了两个结构性矛盾:一是投资中政府融资平台的崛起,深刻地改变了中国的投资结构,投资效率开始下降;二是投资拉动的经济增长模式必然依靠货币信贷释放来支撑,容易带来经济泡沫化。评论中国经济是否有泡沫化现象,可以从经济货币化指数、固定资产投资占GDP的比重、PPI和CPI的长期背离三个方面进行分析。That Chinese economic keeps growing for 35 years is mainly driven by export--oriented economic. But this growth mode came to an end in 2008 when international financial crisis happened. In order to cope with the effect of international financial crisis on China＇s economy, the central government issued a ＂Four trillion＂ stimulus plan in the fourth quarter of 2008. During the implement process of the ＂Four trillion＂ investment stimulus plan, the government financing platform changed the investment structure of the China. The investment--led--economic--growth mode must rely on monetary and credit release. Behind the economic bubble, there is excessive currency and credit expansion. To review Chinese economy whether there is bubble phenomenon, we may analyze Chinese economy from three aspects, including economic monetization index, investment in fixed assets accounted for the proportion of GDP, and long--term deviation of PPI and CPI.

关 键 词：经济泡沫化 经济增长模式 外贸依存度 货币信用膨胀 

分 类 号：F124.1[经济管理—世界经济]