基于天气预报和Penman-Monteith公式的短期逐日参考作物腾发量预报  

Short-term Daily Reference Crop Evapotranspiration Forecast Based on Weather Forecast and Penman-Monteith Equation

作　　者：赵琪[1] 罗玉峰[1] 彭世彰[1] 孙勇 常晓敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]江苏省高邮市水务局,江苏高邮225600

出　　处：《节水灌溉》2014年第1期1-4,8,共5页Water Saving Irrigation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51179048);国家科技支撑计划课题(2011BAD25B07);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2011B02214)

摘　　要：为探索精确预报未来短期参考作物腾发量（EL）的方法，提出基于天气预报和Penman-Monteith（PM）公式进行ET0预报。收集了南京2012年5月24—2013年1月31日逐日对未来7d的气象预报数据，在气温预报的基础上，将风力等级和天气类型转换成平均风速和日照时数后，采用简化的PM公式进行逐日ET0预报，并与用实测气象数据和PM公式计算的ET0值进行比较。结果表明，预见期1～7d内，ET0预报值与计算值的变化趋势基本一致，率定期和验证期准确率分别达66．3％和94．0％，均方根误差分别为1．51mm／d和0．93mm／d，但相关系数仅为0．55和0．44。误差的原因在于风力预报和天气类型预报准确度较低。提出的方法具有一定物理基础和数据较为容易获取的优点，为较准确地预报ETO进行了有益的探索。To explore methods for precise forecast of short-term future reference crop evapotranspiration （ET0）, a method based on weather forecasts and the Penman-Monteith （PM） equation was proposed in this paper. The daily weather forecast data for future 7 days from May 24, 2012 to January 31, 2013 of the Nanjing Station was collected. The forecasted wind scale was transferred to daily average wind speed and the weather condition was transferred to sunshine duration, together with forecasted maximum and minimum temperatures, daily ET0 was forecasted using the simplified PM equation and compared with the calculated daily ETo by using the PM equation and observed weather data. The results showed that for the future 1 to 7 days forecast, the forecasted and calculated ET0 followed the same pattern; the average accuracy rates for the calibration and verification periods were 66. 3~ and 94. 0~, re- spectively; the average root mean square errors were 1.51 mm/d and 0. 93 ram/d, respectively; while the correlation coefficients were only 0. 55 and 0.44, respectively. The errors were mainly caused by the errors in wind scale and weather condition forecasts. The proposed method has physic basis to some extent and the data for it are easy to acquire, thus it is a useful attempt for accurate ET0 forecasts.

关 键 词：参考作物腾发量 灌溉预报 气象预报 灌溉制度 PENMAN-MONTEITH公式 

分 类 号：S161.4[农业科学—农业气象学]