基于PGIS的社区洪涝灾害概率风险评估——以福建省泰宁县城区为例  

PGIS-based probabilistic community flood disaster risk assessment: A case of Taining County Town, Fujian Province

作　　者：李卫江[1] 温家洪[1] 吴燕娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学地理系,上海200234

出　　处：《地理研究》2014年第1期31-42,共12页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(40730526);上海市教委重点学科项目(J50402)

摘　　要：以福建泰宁县城区为例,基于PGIS和概率(情景)风险分析方法,开展社区尺度的洪涝灾害风险研究。利用1949-2011年13次历史洪灾资料,计算了洪水的强度—超越概率,得出大于洪峰流量2929.18 m3/s和洪峰水位281.50 m的年超越概率为1.6%。在此情景下,县城淹没面积达1.3 km2(占总面积31.0%),最大淹没深度超过3.5 m,最长淹没时间超过10小时,共有1846幢建筑物(占全部建筑的42.2%)受影响。分别针对受灾区域房屋建筑、住宅室内财产和商户室内财产,建立灾损方程,评估损失价值,并绘制灾损地图。结果表明,洪涝灾害对社区造成的影响显著,有必要制定应急预案,建立早期预警等进行防灾降险。We carried out a case study of community-scale flood disaster risk assessment in Taining, Fujian, China, using a PGIS method and probabilistic （scenario） risk analysis model. The relationship between flood hazard intensity and exceedance probability in the study area was calculated using historical data of 13 flood events that occurred between 1949-2011. Our analysis shows that the annual probability of exceedance （AEP） of flood is 1.6% with a peak discharge of 2929.18 m3/s and a peak water level of 281.50 m on the scenario of 1.6% AEP, the inundation area is up to 1.3 km2, covering approximately 31.0% of the total area of the county town, the deepest inundation depth is over 3.5 m, and the maximum inundation time is over 10 hours. There are 1846 （42.2% of the total） buildings affected by the floods. Three disaster loss formulae were established based on loss information derived from the damaged buildings, household properties and retail store properties, respectively, and then loss estimation were conducted, and loss distribution was mapped. The results show that, the impacts of flood disaster on the community are significant, and it is necessary to make emergency planning and establish an early warning system for flood disaster prevention and reduction.

关 键 词：参与式地理信息系统 社区 洪涝灾害 风险评估 福建泰宁 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TV877[水利工程—水利水电工程]