气候变化对台兰河年平均径流量的影响  

Effect of Climate Change on Annual Runoff Volume of the Tailan River

作　　者：王志杰[1] 王新辉[1] 旦木仁加甫[1] 耿曙萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆水文水资源局,新疆乌鲁木齐830000

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2014年第1期125-130,共6页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：2010年水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201001065)资助

摘　　要：以台兰河为研究对象,选用台兰水文站1957—2011年平均流量序列,采用SPSS统计软件对其55 a序列进行趋势分析。结果显示:台兰河径流与降水量的年内分配极不均匀,径流主要集中在夏秋两季,降水量集中在春夏两季,径流与降水量集中期主要分布在7月。识别和提取台兰河年平均流量时间序列的趋势函数QS(t),获得了相应的趋势回归模型;台兰河年平均流量序列存在1957—1981年、1981—1999年、1999—2011年3个时段呈递减→递增→递减变化态势;降水、气温变化是影响台兰河不同时段年平均流量变化的主要因素,年平均径流量变化趋势与气温、降水变化趋势一致。The Tailan River rises in the southern piedmont of the Tomor Peak in the southwest Tianshan Mountains, and some modem glaciers are distributed in the headwaters of the Tailan River. The Tailan Hydrologic Station is located at the debouchure of the river, and the area upstream from the station is 1 324 km2. In this stud- y, the variation of mean annual runoff volume at Tailan Hydrologic Station during the period of 1957 -2011 was an- alyzed using the SPSS Statistical Product and Service Solutions programs. The results revealed that the annual dis- tribution of runoff and precipitation was quite uneven, runoff occurred mainly in summer and autumn, and precipi- tation mainly in spring and summer. A trend regression model was developed after recognizing and extracting the trend function QS （t） of the time series of mean annual runoff volume of the Tailan River. The annual runoff vol- ume of the Tailan River was in decrease during the period of 1957 - 1981, increase during the period of 1981 - 1999, and decrease again during the period of 1999 - 2011. Precipitation and temperature were the main factors re- suhing in the variation of annual runoff volume of the Tailan River, and the change of annual runoff volume was similar to the variation of precipitation and temperature.

关 键 词：降水 气温 年平均流量 时间序列 趋势函数 台兰河 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]