人民币国际化进程中货币替代、货币反替代及其影响因素分析  

Analysis of Currency Substitution, Anti-currency Substitution and Their Influencing Factors during the Internationalization of RMB

作　　者：陶士贵[1] 崇亮亮 

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学商学院金融系 [2]中国邮政储蓄银行江苏省分行

出　　处：《创新》2014年第1期64-71,127,共8页Innovation

基　　金：国家社科基金项目<应对军事冲突的中国外汇储备风险防控研究>(13BJY171)

摘　　要：随着我国逐步推进利率和汇率市场化，货币替代和货币反替代是人民币国际化进程中的必然现象。文章选取1994—2010年的相关数据，构建了适合我国的货币替代和货币反替代的模型，并通过VAR模型、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验，得出国民收入水平、中关两国利率差异、通货膨胀率、实际有效汇率对货币替代和货币反替代的影响程度。结论表明，国民收入水平和通货膨胀率对货币替代的影响较大；货币反替代率与国民收入水平增长率以及中关短期利率差异的增长率呈正相关。在此基础上，提出增强利率与汇率的联动性，加快人民币国际化的步伐；改革国际货币体系，改变发展中国家的“原罪”和货币错配等建议。As China gradually implements the market-based interest rate and exchange rate, currency substitution and anti-currency substitution will become inevitable during the internationalization of RMB. Based on the relevant data from 1994 to 2010, this article proposes a model for currency substitution and anti-currency substitution that fits the situation in China. After the verification by the VAR model, co-integration test and Granger causality test, the degree of impacts of national income level, different interest rate between the U.S. and China, inflation rate, and real effective exchange rate on currency substitution and anti-currency substitution are obtained. The conclusion shows that, the level of national income and inflation rate have great impacts on the currency substitution; the rate of anti-currency substitution is positively correlated to the growth rate of national income and short-term different interest rate between the U.S. and China. On this basis, it proposes to enhance the linkage between interest rate and exchange rate and to accelerate the internationalization of RMB. It also proposes to reform the international monetary system and to change the 'original sin'and currency mismatch of developing countries.

关 键 词：货币替代 货币反替代 VAR模型 国民收入水平 实际有效汇率 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学]