我国农产品国际贸易收支主要影响因素的实证分析  

An Empirical Analysis of the Main Factors Affecting Agricultural Trade Balance in China

作　　者：张伟如[1,2] 胡冰[1] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学,北京100029 [2]包商银行,北京100101

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2014年第2期97-105,共9页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

摘　　要：从1998年到2010年,我国农产品国际贸易收支状况不断恶化,从小额顺差陡然变为巨额逆差,在此变化过程中,凸显出我国农产品国际贸易在竞争中的颓势,这种颓势必然挤兑国内农产品出口企业的利润空间,进而挫伤农业生产的积极性,甚至可能威胁到我国粮食生产的安全。为扭转这种不利局面,我们必须从根源入手,找出影响我国农产品国际贸易收支的主要影响因素。为此,本文在标准贸易收支模型和经典引力模型的基础上,引入贸易加权距离和双边贸易的相对量概念,建立农产品国际贸易收支的面板数据线性对数回归模型,并对模型的异方差、自相关、内生性和稳健性进行探讨,依据回归结果提出改善我国农产品国际贸易收支状况的相关政策建议。In recent years China＇s agricultural trade balance became deteriorating, from a small surplus in 1998 to a large deficit in 2010. It shows that China＇s agricultural trade has a significant decline in the interna- tional competition. Therefore, the inevitable fact that the decline decreases profits of agricultural exports com- panies, dampens the enthusiasm of agricultural production, and even threatens the safety of grain production. In order to improve the disadvantageous situation, it is very important task for us to identify the main factors impacting China＇s agricultural trade balance. This paper introduces the trade-weighted distance and the relative variables of bilatet;al trade into the standard trade balance model, and then develops a linear logarithmic panel model of agricultural trade balance on the base of the classic gravity model. Besides, heteroskedasticity, auto- correlation and endogenous are discussed to robust out model. Finally, according to the results, several rele- vant policy suggestions are put forward.

关 键 词：农产品 国际贸易收支 随机效应模型 差分广义矩估计 系统广义矩估计 

分 类 号：F752.65[经济管理—国际贸易]