主权债务危机的预警与防范  

An early warning system of sovereign debt crises

作　　者：栾彦[1] 李鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学经济学院,沈阳110036

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第8期1202-1218,共17页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：教育部专项项目(09JF001);辽宁经济社会发展课题(2013lslktzijjx-25)

摘　　要：该文构建了中国的主权债务安全预警体系,通过功效系数法,测算出了中国的主权债务安全预警指数(SDEWI)。发现亚洲金融危机后,中国SDEWI指数首次出现黄色预警,约80.29;2009年至2012年欧债危机期间,中国SDEWI指数又连续4年为黄色预警,约78.28,共下降了14.62%。并据此指出了中国务必出台的相关配套措施,以防止主权债务危机的发生,保持其主权债务的可持续性,提高中国的债务管理水平。This paper presents an early warning system with the sovereign debt early warning index （SDEWI） determined using the efficiency coefficient method to effectively predict the possibility of sovereign debt crisis in China. The results show that after the Asian financial crisis, China＇s SDEWI for the first time showed yellow warning of about 80.29, and that during the European debt crisis from 2009 to 2012, China＇s SDEWI of yellow warning also lasted for four years, reaching 78.28 and decreasing by 14.62%. Therefore, relative measures are proposed in this paper to prevent the sovereign debt crisis, maintain the sovereign debt sustainability and improve China＇s standard of debt management.

关 键 词：主权债务 主权债务安全预警指数 预警系统 

分 类 号：F2[经济管理—国民经济]