船舶波浪载荷长短期预报方法及其特性研究  

Long/short term prediction of ship wave loads and its characteristics

作　　者：李辉[1] 张艺瀚[1] 任慧龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工程大学船舶工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《华中科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第12期112-116,共5页Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51109046)

摘　　要：研究了船舶波浪载荷长短期极值预报的数值计算方法,在短期值加权组合的基础上采用威布尔拟合方法描述波浪载荷的长期分布,并寻求较为快速的数值求根方法来提高效率.分析了影响波浪载荷长短期预报的主要因子,如海况、波浪谱、浪向角间隔等.基于波浪载荷的三维直接计算法,对一系列散货船、油船进行了波浪弯矩的长短期预报并得到了一些实用性规律,验证预报方法准确性,同时统计回归得到了考虑浪向和重现期的长期值经验公式.结果表明:利用威布尔分布可以有效拟合波浪弯矩的长期分布,长期值规律的研究可以作为规范公式制定的参考.Weibull distribution fitted method was used to describe the long/term distribution of wave loads based on the overlying of short-term values. Then, some main factors that may influence the long-term or short-term prediction were pointed out, such as wave scatter diagram, wave spectrum model, incident wave angle interval and so on. Finally, the prediction of wave-induced bending mo- ments for a series of typical bulk carriers and oil tankers were calculated by the uniform predict meth- od base on three dimensional wave loads calculation theory. At the same time, some useful regular properties were discussed to verify the prediction method. The empirical formula for long-term ex- treme value was educed considering the wave direction and the return periods. The results show that Weibull method can fit the long-term prediction of wave bending moment efficiently, and the study of long-term values can be the reference for rule constitution.

关 键 词：波浪载荷 长短期预报 威布尔拟合 经验公式 三维势流 

分 类 号：U661.3[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]