基于环境风险评价的危险品道路运输优化选线——以张家港市为例  

Route optimization for hazardous materials transportation based on environmental risk assessment——A case of Zhangjiagang

作　　者：夏秋[1] 钱瑜[1] 刘萌斐 

机构地区：[1]南京大学环境学院,污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2014年第1期266-272,共7页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家"863"项目(2012AA063304);江苏省科技支撑计划(BE2011694)

摘　　要：张家港市拥有我国唯一的内河港保税区,区内化工产业密集,大量危险品在城市道路网上形成一个个"移动危险源".本文系统分析了张家港市危险品道路运输过程中发生泄漏事故的风险:识别了道路网上危险品运输分布;提出了基于城市道路的泄漏事故率修正系数;运用ALOHA模型模拟事故情景、GIS计算影响区域长度和面积;从人口暴露和环境污染两方面构建风险评价模型并作为优化选线指标.基于上述基础,将风险评价模型应用于危险品道路运输网GIS平台,进行网络模块分析.结果表明,起迄点间路径的风险指数最小为14.12,该路径为最优路径,为张家港市危险品道路运输选线提供科学决策支持.Zhangjiagang City, with enormous petrochemical industries, boasts the bonded area which is the only one of its kind in the inland-river-type ports in China. With respect to the hazardous materials （HAZMATs） transportation on urban and suburban road network, there is an urgent need to improve the way the trucks carrying HAZMATs. One of the key measures to solve the problem is the environmental-risk-assessment-based route optimization. Therefore, analysis on risks was made in detail when a release occurs during the transportation： distribution of HAZMATs road transportation was identified; accident probability modification coefficient was introduced to revise the basic release probability; ALOHA model was applied to simulate accident scenarios, Geographical Information System （GIS） was employed to calculate the threat zone accurately; and exposed population and polluted environment were both taken into account. Subsequently, a risk assessment model was put forward and recognized as the evaluation criteria for route optimization. Last but not least, the proposed approach was demonstrated on the road network platform and network analysis module was processed. Results showed that the optimal route of all possible goals was calculated, whose risk index was 14.12. It is verified that route optimization could provide scientific support to decision-making for Zhangjiagang City.

关 键 词：危险品 道路运输 风险分析 优化选线 

分 类 号：X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]