中国经济发展方式转变与外贸发展方式转变相互影响的实证分析  

Empirical Analysis on Interaction between China's Economic Development Mode and Transformation of China's Foreign Trade Development Mode

作　　者：汪素芹[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学国际经贸学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2014年第1期51-60,共10页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(项目号:10BJL038)"中国转变外贸发展方式的实证分析"部分研究成果;江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目的支持

摘　　要：本文首先构建了反映经济、外贸发展方式转变水平的指标体系,对经济、外贸发展方式转变水平进行评价。然后用格兰杰因果关系检验、OLS、脉冲响应函数与方差分解等方法,对经济发展方式转变与外贸发展方式转变之间的相互关系实证分析。研究结果表明:我国经济发展方式与外贸发展方式转变存在着因果关系,经济发展方式转变与外贸发展方式转变相互影响效果明显。经济发展方式转变水平每提高1%,外贸发展方式转变水平相应提高1.4314%;外贸发展方式转变对我国经济发展方式转变亦具有正面的影响,外贸发展方式转变水平每提高1%,经济发展方式转变水平相应提高0.6829%。In this paper we firstly construct an index system reflecting and evaluating the levels of China’s economic development and transformation of foreign trade development mode.Then,using Granger Causality,OLS,the impulse response function and the variance decomposition technique,we conduct an empirical analysis on the interaction between China’s economic development mode and the transformation of China’s foreign trade development mode.The results show that there is an causal relationship between the two development modes,and there is an interaction between the transformations of the two development modes.As the study suggests,an 1% increase in the level of transformation of the economic development mode would be responded by an 1.4314% increase in the level of transformation of foreign trade development mode;the transformation of foreign trade development mode also has a positive effect on the transformation of China’s economic development mode,with every 1% increase in the level of transformation of foreign trade development mode corresponded by an 0.6829% increase in the level of transformation of the economic development mode.

关 键 词：经济发展方式 外贸发展方式 转变 相互关系 实证 

分 类 号：F720[经济管理—产业经济]