Has Okun's Law Become Invalid in China?——Estimation of Potential GDP Growth Rates and Natural Rates of Unemployment Based on Dual Structure  

作　　者：邹沛江 

机构地区：[1]Institute of Economics and Management,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics

出　　处：《China Economist》2014年第1期53-67,共15页中国经济学人（英文版）

摘　　要：This paper calculates the potential GDP growth rates and the natural rates of unemployment in China using the dual decomposition of the simple Okun＇s law. The results show that every 1% increase in China＇s urban registered unemployment rate leads to a 1.98% drop of GDP, the potential growth rate of GDP of China is about 10%, and the average natural rate of unemployment is about 3.2% in China in the past three decades. The paper finds that Olcun＇s law is still valid in China in the long run, but the Okun coefficient is about -3.79, overestimating the impact of the registered unemployment rate on GDP growth, and needs to be corrected based on China＇s dual economic structure.This paper calculates the potential GDP growth rates and the natural rates of unemployment in China using the dual decomposition of the simple Ohm's law.The results show that every 1%increase in China's urban registered unemployment rate leads to a 1.98%drop of GDP,the potential growth rate of GDP of China is about 10%,and the average natural rate of unemployment is about 3.2%in China in the past three decades.The paper finds that Okun's law is still valid in China in the long run,but the Okun coefficient is about-3.79,overestimating the impact of the registered unemployment rate on GDP growth,and needs to be corrected based on China's dual economic structure.

关 键 词：Okun＇s Law dual structure natural rate 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F249.2