人口结构变迁背景下的中国经济增长——基于动态可计算一般均衡模型的模拟  

China's Economic Growth in the Context of Demographic Transition: Simulation with Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model

作　　者：黄祖辉[1] 王鑫鑫[2] 陈志钢 陈佳骊[4] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学中国农村发展研究院,浙江杭州310058 [2]浙江财经大学经济与国际贸易学院,浙江杭州310018 [3]国际食物政策研究所,加拿大华盛顿200061002 [4]浙江财经大学工商管理学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《浙江大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2014年第1期168-183,共16页Journal of Zhejiang University:Humanities and Social Sciences

基　　金："农村改革发展协同创新中心"研究成果;国际农业研究磋商组织(CGIAR)资助项目

摘　　要：人口老龄化和民工荒现象暗示着中国劳动力低成本的优势将消失,并会对中国未来的经济增长产生负面影响。采用可计算一般均衡模型,利用联合国最新的人口预测,模拟分析中国2010—2030年人口结构变化及其相关的人口措施产生的经济效应后发现,由于人口老龄化导致的劳动力人口的下降,中国经济增长呈现逐步放缓的趋势,2025—2030年中国的经济增速将下降到5.513%。而相关的人口措施可以缓解人口老龄化对经济带来的负面效应。其中,提高教育水平、促进人力资本积累对经济的拉动作用最为明显。As the world＇s most populous country of old people, China became one of the countries with an aging population society in 2000. Demographic transitions influenced by population aging have caused many economic and social problems and been attracting increasing attention throughout China, and are emerging as an important issue in most developing countries. However, as the issue of population aging only began to unfold at the beginning of the 21 st century for developing countries, the existing studies onthe relationship between demographic transition and economic growth mainly focus on developed countries. Therefore, there are only a few studies on the impact of demographic transition on economic growth in developing countries. The population aging and the phenomenon of labor shortage since the beginning of the 21st century indicate that the demographic dividend due to the low labor cost may have diminished in the near future, which may have a negative impact on China＇s sustainable growth. Demographic transition is a long-term tendency, whose influence on China＇s economy may be felt some time later, impacting its macroeconomic environment. This paper tries to quantify the economic effects in the context of demographic transition using the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium （CGE） model. The shock of demographic changes in the simulation includes such basic scenarios as population aging, gender shifts, urbanization and human capital structure that contribute to real economic development. A comparative scenario with demographic change simulation other than population aging is adopted for capturing the real impact of population aging. In order to quantify the economic and social effect of government demographic-related policies, another five scenarios are designed to test the impact of different policy measures on the economic growth. The results from the CGE model reveal that population aging does gradually slow down China＇s economic growth to 5.513% from 2025 to 2030. All the demographic-r

关 键 词：老龄化 民工荒 人口结构变迁 劳动人口下降 经济增长 CGE模型 人力资本积累 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学] F124F224