金融发展、经常账户波动与中国净国外资产  

Financial Development,Current Account Fluctuation and China's Net Foreign Assets

作　　者：刘健[1] 

机构地区：[1]交通银行金融研究中心,上海200336

出　　处：《南方金融》2013年第12期17-21,共5页South China Finance

摘　　要：本文对我国净国外资产的演变趋势进行了经验分析,并用误差修正模型实证检验了金融发展、经常账户波动及汇率制度等因素对我国净国外资产的影响。实证结果表明,我国的净国外资产偏离其均衡状态和过早地成为净债权国,是由我国金融发展相对滞后及我国长期以来所实行的钉住美元的汇率制度所致,而我国净国外资产的短期波动则主要受到中央银行在外汇市场上的冲销行为及经常账户波动的影响。对此,本文提出相应的政策建议,以完善我国对净国外资产的管理。The paper primarily analyzes the evolution of China＇s net foreign assets （NFA）, and then uses error correction model （ECM） to test the effects of financial development, the current account balance, exchange rate and real interest on China＇s NFA. The results show thai China＇s NFA deviates its long-term equilibrium and become net creditor prematurity because of the lagged financial development and the exchange rate system that pegging to U.S. dollar＇s, while the short-term volatility of China＇s NFA is mainly affected by the short-term volatility of current account balance. Based on that, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations to improve the management of net foreign assets in China.

关 键 词：净国外资产 金融发展 经常账户 汇率制度 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]