中国农产品比较优势动态变化的实证分析  

An Empirical Analysis on Dynamics of Agricultural Products' Comparative Advantages in China

作　　者：李谷成[1] 卢毓[1] 尹朝静 

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院/湖北农村发展研究中心,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2014年第2期61-67,共7页Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"中国农业全要素生产率增长:结构调整;比较优势与动态演进"(71273103);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划"中国农业全要素生产率若干专题研究"(NCET-11-0647);中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金项目"农业全要素生产率增长及影响因素研究"(2011PY133)

摘　　要：基于SITC Rev.2版本农产品数据和对称性显示比较优势指数,利用非参数核密度估计和条件密度估计对入世前后农产品比较优势动态变化进行实证分析。结果表明,在入世前后共计20年的时间里,中国农产品比较优势状态不容乐观,农产品比较优势和贸易模式发生了较显著变化,这种变化在入世以后变得更加明显。由此提出如下政策建议:尽快制定合适的农业比较优势发展战略,避免落入比较优势陷阱;在分享全球化红利的同时,尽快建立风险防范机制,提高抵御国际市场冲击的能力。Based on UN Comtrade Database of agricultural products and Revealed Symmetry Com- parative Advantage（RSCA） index, this paper analyzes and compares the dynamic changes of agricultural products＇ comparative advantages before and after China＇s entering WTO by using the non-parametric Kernel Density Estimation and Conditional Density Estimation. The empirical results show that the com- parative advantages of China＇s agricultural products are still not so good before and after its entering in- to WTO. Around this 20 years,there have been quite significant changes of agricultural products＇ com- parative advantages and trade patterns,and these changes have become even more obvious after China＇s entering into WTO. This paper finally concludes that some strategies for improving agricultural compar- ative advantages should be made so as to escape from the comparative advantage trap. At the same time, risk prevention mechanism must be established to improve the risk resistance capacity in international agricultural market when sharing the bonus of globalization.

关 键 词：农产品贸易 比较优势 对称性显示比较优势指数 非参数估计 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]