货币政策工具对房地产价格影响的动态研究!  

Dynamic Study on Effects of Monetary Policy Tools on Housing Prices

作　　者：王敏[1] 时鹏[1] 余劲[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2014年第2期121-128,共8页Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目"货币政策冲击下资产价格波动非均衡效应研究--基于动态经济学视角"(10XJA790010)

摘　　要：采用1998年第1季度至2011年第4季度的数据,将存款准备金率、利率和货币供应量纳入到结构向量自回归模型(SVAR)中,分析了货币政策工具对房地产价格冲击的强度和时效。结果表明:存款准备金率对房地产价格的影响在中期为负,短期和长期为正;利率在短期和中期对房地产价格的影响为负,但在中期的调控效果比较显著;货币供应量对房地产价格的影响在短期和中期为正,长期为负;存款准备金率和货币供应量对房地产价格的影响比利率的影响更显著一些。提出央行可以将存款准备金率作为调控的重要手段,积极推进利率市场化,合理控制货币供应量的供给,同时增加货币政策决策的灵活性。Based on data from Q1 of 1998 to 04 of 2011,this paper first builds the structural vector autoregression model with the incorporation of deposit reserve ratio, interest rate and money supply, then it analyzes the strength and timeliness o{ the impact of various monetary policy tools on real estate price. The result shows that deposit reserve ratio has negative effects on housing price in the medium run and positive effect in the short run and long run; interest rates have negative effects on housing price in the short run and medium run,but the regulating effect is obvious in the medium run; and M2 has the posi- tive effects on housing price in the short and medium run and negative in the long run; deposit reserve ratio and Me have more impact on housing prices than interest rates. Therefore, this paper concludes that the central bank should adopt deposit reserve ratio as an important means to regulate the real estate mar- ket, actively promote the marketization of interest rate and reasonably control the supply of M2, and in- crease the flexibility of monetary policy.

关 键 词：存款准备金率 利率 货币供应量 房地产价格 SVAR模型 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]