塔里木河流域水资源系统演化驱动力与风险分析  

Analysis of evolution driving forces and risk of water resources system of the Tarim river basin

作　　者：张修宇[1,2] 左其亭[1] 

机构地区：[1]郑州大学水利与环境学院,郑州450001 [2]华北水利水电大学,郑州450011

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2014年第1期64-72,共9页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51279183和51079132);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助课题(20094101110002)

摘　　要：西北内陆河流域水资源受多种水源补给作用,水资源系统自演化规律复杂,对气候变化十分敏感。由于所处地理位置特殊,水资源系统具有独特的演化过程,并表现出较强的非平稳性、脆弱性。多重驱动力综合作用,增加了塔河流域水资源管理的风险和不确定性。本文以塔里木河流域三条源流主要出山口控制水文站、流域气象站1962-2007年共计46年水文、气象资料,2000-2011年积雪覆盖资料为研究基础,建立气象、水文变量间的多元COPULA联合分布模型。依据相依结构变点检测与尾部相关度结果,分析不同时期水资源系统演化驱动力及其相依测度变化;分析主要支流天然径流的风险遭遇概率,进一步探讨流域水资源演化的时空变化,为区域水资源管理提供可靠基础。Water resources system in northwest inland river basin is affected by various kinds of water supply, therefore, its evolution demonstrates complexity and susceptiveness to climate change. Besides, the special geographical location contributes to its unique evolution process and clearer non-stationary feature and vulnerability. Comprehensive effect of multiple driving force factors, consequently, increase the management of risk and uncertainty of Tarim basin water resources. Based on hydrological and meteorological data during the period 1962-1997 from those hydrologic stations and watershed meteorological stations in terms of the three rivers originated from the Tarim River basin and the snow-cover material during the period of 2000 to 2011, multiple COPULA joint distribution model between the meteorological, hydrological variables is established in the paper. Evolution driving force of water resources system in different periods and its dependent measure change are analyzed according to the dependent structure change point detection and tail correlation results. Meanwhile, Analysis of the risk probability of the natural runoffs of the main tributaries and further discussion of the space-time change of river basin water resources evolution are made to provide a reliable basis for regional water resources management.

关 键 词：水文学 COPULA联合分布模型 塔里木河流域 演化驱动力 

分 类 号：TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源]