黄河下游水沙突变特征分析  

Study on runoff and sediment process variation in the lower Yellow River

作　　者：李文文[1,2] 傅旭东[1] 吴文强[3] 吴保生[1] 

机构地区：[1]水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室,清华大学,北京100084 [2]北京中水新华国际工程咨询有限公司,北京100044 [3]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2014年第1期108-113,共6页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51109116);国家水专项(2009ZX07212-005-3);“十二五”国家科技支撑课题(2012BAB02B02)

摘　　要：河流水文序列存在着时空变异性,变化趋势发生变化前后河流水文样本总体分布显著不同。掌握黄河下游来水来沙变化趋势及变异成因是黄河下游水资源合理开发利用及水沙调节关键。本文使用非参数统计方法 Mann-Kendall趋势检验方法和Pettitt变点检测方法对黄河下游5个水文站的年来水量和年来沙量系列分别进行了趋势检测和变异点检测。研究结果显示黄河下游年来水量和年输沙量一级变点均出现在1985年,变异成因主要为气候变化及龙羊峡等水利工程建设运行。年来水量和年输沙量二级变点出现的年份不完全一致,5个水文站年输沙量系列的二级突变点均在1996年,年输沙量系列突变时间晚于年来水量序列突变的时间,并且年输沙量系列的突变规律性较好,三门峡、刘家峡及小浪底水库的建设运行是二级变点出现的主要因素。There existsis a temporal and spatial variability in river hydrologicaly data sequences, and variation trends in the overall distribution of data samples before and after a change often show a significant difference. To understand the variability of the lower Yellow mainstream, this study conducted a trend detection of runoff and suspended sediment load at its five hydrological stations, using the mutation detection of the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Pettit change point detection method. The results show that first change points of both annual runoff and suspended sediment load appeared in 1985 and the variation was caused by a climate change and the construction and operation of Longyangxia dam. Second change points of these two processes were not in the same year, with the one for sediment in 1996, which was later than that for runoff. The construction and operation of Sanmenxia, Liujiaxia, and Xiaolangdi reservoirs is a major factor for second change points.

关 键 词：水沙动力学 来水来沙系列 Pettitt变点检测 Mann—Kendall趋势检验 黄河下游 

分 类 号：TV147[水利工程—水力学及河流动力学]