钢轨疲劳重伤威布尔分布的三个参数的估计方法  

ESTIMATION METHOD FOR THREE PARAMETERS OF WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION OF RAIL FATIGUE AND SEVERE DEFECTS

作　　者：袁海斌[1] 张春华[1] 范俊巍 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学自动化科学与电气工程学院,北京100191 [2]北京地铁运营公司线路公司,北京100082

出　　处：《计算机应用与软件》2014年第2期256-258,共3页Computer Applications and Software

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(60974058);航空科学基金项目(2011ZD51053)

摘　　要：钢轨的疲劳重伤失效概率服从威布尔分布。但在估计其威布尔分布的三个参数时,传统的图解法效率低,且误差较大。而将威布尔函数转换成线性函数后进行最小二乘拟合的算法,则需要在一维上搜索相关系数的最大值。提出利用下山单纯形算法进行参数估计,并根据钢轨重伤威布尔模型的参数一般分布情况,构造合理的初始单纯形。结果表明,下山单纯形法在估计参数时,精度高,速度快,能有效地估计钢轨重伤威布尔分布的三个参数。Rail fatigue and severe defects rates follow the Weibull distribution.When estimating three parameters of their Weibull distribution,traditional graphic method is of low efficiency and large error.It needs to search the maximum value of correlation coefficient in one dimension when using the least-squares fitting method after transforming the Weibull function into linear function.In the paper we propose to apply downhill simplex method to estimating the parameters,and construct reasonable initial simplex based on the general distribution of the Weibull model parameters of severe rail defects.The result indicates that the downhill simplex method is of high-precision and fast pace in parameters estimation,it can effectively estimate three parameters of Weibull distribution of severe rail defects.

关 键 词：钢轨 疲劳重伤 威布尔参数 下山单纯形法 

分 类 号：TP319[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论]