以问题解决为导向的投资项目社会稳定风险评估新框架  

New Framework of Project Social Unrest Risk Assessment Oriented by Problem Solution

作　　者：徐成彬[1] 李开孟[1] 彭振武[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国国际工程咨询公司,北京100048

出　　处：《技术经济》2014年第1期83-91,共9页Journal of Technology Economics

摘　　要：针对我国现行的重大项目社会稳定风险评估框架存在的缺陷和错误,提出以"发现问题—分析问题—解决问题"为主线的投资项目社会稳定风险评估新框架。新框架的评估思路是:通过全面深入调查,在分析各风险因素的基础上确定影响社会稳定的主要风险,然后根据专家经验预测各风险的发生概率和影响程度,对标评判风险程度及可控程度,对不可接受的风险必须分类制定切实可行的应对措施,直到所有风险都处于"低风险且可控"状态才可得出项目可行的评价结论。In view of the defects and errors existing in the prevalent framework of social unrest risk assessment of major project oriented by whole risk-degree judgment,this paper puts forward a new assessment framework oriented by problem solution which takes ＂finding problem-- analyzing problem--solving problem＂ as the main line. The assessment process based on this new framework are as follows：on the basis of the thorough and comprehensive investigation,determining the primary social unrest risks through analyzing various risk factors; then forecasting the occurrence probability and the impact of each risk according to experts＇ experiences, and evaluating risk level and its controllable degree after benchmarking;classifying any unacceptable risks,and making practical measures until all of risks are in a ＂low-risk and controlled＂ state.

关 键 词：重大项目 社会稳定风险评估 稳评框架 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济]