地下水埋深变动对农业生产影响的实证研究  

Empirical Study on the Impact of Groundwater Depth Change on Agricultural Production

作　　者：王金霞[1] 李玉敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所农业政策研究中心,北京100101

出　　处：《人民黄河》2014年第2期71-74,共4页Yellow River

基　　金：国家重点基础研究计划项目(2012CB955700;2010CB428406);国家自然科学基金资助项目(70925001;71161140351);中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所资助项目(2012ZD2008)

摘　　要：利用全国10个省(区)2 a的面板数据对我国地下水位变动趋势及其对农业生产的影响做实证分析。研究发现,我国地下水位越来越低的趋势在加重。随着地下水位的下降,作物单产并没有降低,这说明生产的增长在一定程度上是以过度开采地下水为代价的。随着地下水位的下降和可用水资源的减少,农民会在作物种植结构上做出一些调整,主要是减少对灌溉依赖程度较高的作物的种植面积(如水稻和小麦),增加一些对灌溉依赖程度较低作物(如玉米等)的种植面积。Based on 2 years＇ field panel data collected in 10 provinces, this paper empirically analyzed the changing trend of groundwater depth and its impact on agricultural production. The results show that the groundwater depth tended to decline and the trend has become more serious. With the decline of groundwater depth, crop yields have not been negatively affected. It implies that the increase of agricultural production is at the cost of over-exploitation of groundwater. With decline of groundwater depth and the decrease of available water resources, farmers make response by adjusting cropping patterns, such as increasing crop sown areas of irrigation sensitive crops （ such as paddy and wheat） and reducing crop sown are- as for those crops （such as maize） which have relatively low dependence on irrigation.

关 键 词：地下水埋深 作物单产 作物种植结构 

分 类 号：P641.8[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]