农户对气候变化感知的有效性分析——以江苏省水稻种植为例  

Analysis on Effectiveness of Farmers′ Perception to Climate Change: Example of Rice Planting in Jiangsu Province

作　　者：王全忠[1] 周宏[1] 陈欢[1] 朱晓莉[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院,南京210095 [2]南京农业大学理学院,南京210095

出　　处：《技术经济》2014年第2期71-76,103,共7页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"气候变化;产量变动与效率缺失--水稻为例"(71173109);南京农业大学青年科技创新基金项目"时间序列变动分析与农业应用研究"(KJ2012019)

摘　　要：使用1980-2011年江苏省温度、降水量和风速的逐月资料以及2012年稻作区农户对气候变化感知的调研数据，检验了农户对气候变化感知的有效性，并使用排序数据模型分析了影响农户准确感知气候变化的因素。研究结果显示：1980年以来年江苏省不同地区的温度、降水量和风速的变化趋势均存在区域差异；农户对气候变化感知的平均有效性为78．22％，其中对温度上升趋势的感知准确度最高；感知有效性得分为1．42，说明农民基本上能够准确认知1～2个气象因子的变化趋势，但准确感知水平还有较大的提升空间；排序Probit模型的回归结果显示，是否参加村镇技术培训、农户文化程度、水稻种植规模和家庭非农收入对农民感知气候变化的有效性有显著的促进作用。Using the monthly data of temperature, precipitation, rainstorm volume and typhoon strength from 1980 to 2011 in Jiangsu province, and the survey data of farmer＇s perception to climate change in 2012, this paper tests the effectiveness of farmer＇s perception to climate change, and analyzes the factors influencing farmer＇s accurate perception by using the order probit model. The results show as follows：there are the regional difference in the change trends of temperature,precipitation, rainstorm volume and typhoon strength in six areas of Jiangsu province during 1980-2011 ;the average effectiveness of farmerrs perception to climate change is about 78. 22% ,and the accuracy of farmer＇s perception to the increasing trend of temperature is the highest;the effective score is 1.42, which explains that farmers could accurately recognize the change tend- ency of 1 to 2 meteorological dimensions substantially, and so there is a large space for increasing the accurate level of perception to climate change;the regression based on the order probit model shows that whether participating in village＇s technology training or not,farmer＇s education level,rice planting scale and family＇s non-agricultural income have significant promoting roles in farmer＇s perception to climate change.

关 键 词：气候变化 农户感知 水稻种植 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学] S511[农业科学—农业基础科学]