我国保险市场与信贷市场作用关系的动态分析——基于bootstrap仿真的实证分析  

Dynamic Analysis of the Role Relationship between Insurance and the Credit Market in China based on the Bootstrap Simulation

作　　者：贺磊[1] 王雄[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学商学院,湖南长沙410083

出　　处：《湖南大学学报（社会科学版）》2014年第1期84-89,共6页Journal of Hunan University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71203241);教育部人文社会科学研究基金项目(10YJC 630254);教育部博士点基金项目(20100162120045);湖南省社科基金项目(2010YBB334);湖南省软科学基金项目(2010ZK3138)

摘　　要：分别从财产保险市场和人身保险市场与信贷市场的 Granger因果关系及累积作用两个方面研究了我国保险市场与信贷市场之间相互作用关系的动态变化。为克服传统 Granger 因果检验在小样本情形下所面临的精度问题，采用基于 bootstrap仿真的 Wald检验、似然比检验、Lagrange 数乘检验对1985~2011年财产保险市场和人身保险市场与信贷保险市场分别在全样本和滚动窗口所选子样本情形下进行 Granger 因果检验，并对两大保险市场与信贷市场之间相互累积作用进行 bootstrap 模拟估计，结论表明我国财产保险市场和人身保险市场与信贷市场存在相互作用关系且随着保险市场的发展发生了结构性变化，其中财产保险市场与信贷市场存在互补关系而人身保险市场与其存在竞争关系。Test the Granger causality of between property insurance market and credit market and the Granger causality between life insurance market and credit market respectively to study the role relation-ship between insurance market and credit market deeply.In order to avoid the problem that the methods of testing the Granger causality often face inaccuracy in situation of small sample,Wald test Likelihood ratio test,and Lagrange number multiplied based on the bootstrap simulation will be used to test the relation-ship between property insurance market and credit market and relationship between life insurance market and credit market in situations of full sample and sub-sample by rolling window at period from 1985 to 2011,furthermore to estimate the cumulative effect between the insurance market and credit market by bootstrap simulation.The results show that there are relationship between two insurance markets,and the relationship varied with development of insurance market,where there are complementary effect and com-petitive effect between property insurance market and credit market and life insurance market and credit market respectively.

关 键 词：保险市场 信贷市场 动态分析 

分 类 号：F222.3[经济管理—国民经济]