西南5省市极端气候指数时空分布规律研究  

SPATIOTEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE EXTREME CLIMATE INDICES IN THE FIVE SOUTHWESTERN PROVINCES OF CHINA

作　　者：刘琳[1] 徐宗学[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学水科学研究院水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2014年第2期294-301,共8页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：中国工程院重大咨询项目(2012-ZD-13)"我国旱涝事件集合应对战略研究"

摘　　要：利用西南5省市的33个气象站,采用M-K检验和滑动t检验等方法对极端气候指数的时空分布规律进行分析。结果表明:在时间尺度上,西南5省市60a来极端降水指数除PRCPTOT和CDD外均呈现出较弱的上升趋势,表明虽然该地区降水总量略有减少,但最大日降水量和降水强度却有所增加;极端气温指数中TN10、TX10和DTR呈现出明显的下降趋势,其他7指数均呈上升趋势,表明西南5省市有变暖的趋势,且昼夜温差变小;极端降水指数多在20世纪90年代以后发生突变。在空间尺度上,西南5省市与降水量相关的极端降水指数呈现出西北到东南递增的分布规律,四川和云南部分地区处于低值区,而其连续干旱日数(CDD)却处于高值区,因此这两省的干旱风险较高;极端气温指数分布规律不明显,冷、暖系列指数表明云南省气温最高,贵州省最低,结合气温日较差(DTR)和暖期持续天数(WSDI)分析发现云南省发生极端气候事件的风险较大。The data at 33 meteorological stations in five southwestern provinces including Sichuan, Yunnan, Guangxi,Guizhou and Chongqing were used to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of the extreme climate indices.The M-K test and moving t-test methods were used to analyze the jump years and the trend of the extreme climate indices.GIS was used to draw the distribution maps.It was found that extreme precipitation indices except PRCPTOT and CDD in the five southwestern provinces showed a weak upward trend during the past 60 years~ precipitation amount of the region decreased slightly,while the maximum daily precipitation amount and intensity of precipitation increased. It indicated that the total precipitation in the region decreased slightly, while the precipitation was more concentrated.It was confirmed by the increase of R95,Rxld,Rx5d and SDII.The jump for most of extreme precipitation indices occurred in the 1990s, after that,the variation trend of extreme precipitation indices was obvious.Extreme air temperature indices including TN10,TX10 and DTR showed a downward trend, and other 7 indices all showed a upward trend,especially,the warm night index （TN90） and warm sustained days index （WSDI） significantly increased. It indicated that the five southwestern provinces have shown a warming trend, and diurnal temperature difference was smaller.At the spatial scale, extreme precipitation indices associated with precipitation in the five southwestern provinces showed an increasing trend from northwest to southeast.The high value and the low value region are easy to find. Those indices including total precipitation of wet day （PROPTOT） ,maximum daily precipitation and maximum five-day precipitation showed a high value in Guangxi, Guizhou and Chongqing. It indicated that the precipitation amount here was more than other region and the precipitation was more centralized.Those indices showed a small value in Sichuan and part of the Yunnan province, and the continuous days of drought （CDD） show

关 键 词：极端气候指数 时空分布 M—K检验 滑动t检验 西南地区 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]