经济转型中的贫困脆弱性：测度、分解与比较--中俄经济转型绩效的一种微观评价  

Vulnerability to Poverty in Economic Transitions: Measurement,Decomposition and Comparison A Micro- Evaluation of the Performance of Sino- Russian Economic Transitions

作　　者：叶初升[1,2] 赵锐[3] 李慧[2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济发展研究中心 [2]武汉大学经济与管理学院 [3]北京大学国家发展研究院

出　　处：《经济社会体制比较》2014年第1期103-114,共12页Comparative Economic & Social Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“农村扶贫政策绩效评价及其动态瞄准机制设计”(项目编号:70873088)

摘　　要：与宏观层面的转型绩效评价不同，文章通过分析微观层面上社会底层民众的贫困脆弱性，以贫困家户抵御各种风险冲击的能力为视角来评价中俄两国经济转型的绩效。文章使用1996—2008年间5轮中国营养健康调查（CHNS）和俄罗斯纵列监测调查（RLMS）数据，测量了中俄农村家户脆弱性水平及其长期变动趋势，并在分解贫困脆弱性的基础上探寻了两国不同类型的经济转型对农村家户福利水平的长期影响。实证分析表明，中国经济渐进转型保证了农村居民的脆弱性水平逐渐降低，但脆弱性水平仍然较高，其中的风险脆弱性近年来呈上升趋势；而“休克疗法”式的经济转型虽然造成了俄罗斯农村居民收入水平的较大波动，但波动尚在可以忍受的范围之内，贫困脆弱性水平很低且总体上呈下降趋势。The authors evaluate the performance of economic transitions in China and Russia from a micro - per- spective, rather than by conventional macro - evaluation methods, and analyze the vulnerability to poverty of the underprivileged population, which indieates the ability of the impoverished households to withstand various risks and maintain steady income growth from the opposite vantage point. Using unbalanced panel data from China Health and Nutrition Survey （CHNS） and the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey （RLMS）, this paper measures and predicts rural households＇ vulnerability to poverty and its long - term trends in China and Russia, and delves into the long - term effects of these two different types of economic transitions on the welfare of rural households by decomposing the vulnerability to poverty, so as to achieve proper evaluations of the economic transitions. The comparative analysis reveals that China＇s progressive transition ensures the gradually declining vulnerability of rural households, but the level is comparatively higher than the Russian counterpart and risk - induced vulnerability has risen in recent years ; while Russia＇s shock - therapy economic transition brought about great but tolerable income fluctuation in Russia＇s rural households, the vulnerability level is lower than in China and has taken on a downward trend in recent years.

关 键 词：贫困 脆弱性 经济转型 

分 类 号：F061.4[经济管理—政治经济学]