未来15年世界石油供需与价格走势分析  

An Analysis of World Oil Supply, Demand, and Price for the Next 15 Years

作　　者：刘克雨[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油天然气集团公司石油经济和信息研究中心

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2001年第1期22-24,共3页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：今后15年内世界石油资源问题不会影响石油供应的增长,石油供需将基本平衡,不会由于市场供不应求导致油价长时间、大幅度上涨。石油价格将基本与前10年的价格持平或略高,即18～20美元/桶,除个别年份外,上下浮动范围在4～5美元/桶以内。In the past 20 years, the rate of oil reserve replacement of most of the major oil producing countries and major oil companies exceeded 100%. Although 60 billion tons of oil was pumped during this period, advances in technology and new offshore discoveries meant an increase in world proven recoverable oil reserves, In 1979 proven recoverable oil reserves were 88.3 billion tons, while in 1999 this figure grew to 140.4 billion tons. For this reason, there will be no shortage of oil reserves during the next 15 years. Instead, supply and demand will be in equilibrium. Oil prices will likely range between $18-20/bar-rel, a bit higher than the average level of the past 10 years. In addition, the price band will likely be within $4-5/ barrel for these years, However, due to a disparity between oil resource deployment and consumption, the prob-lem of oil supply security in oil consuming countries will be more difficult than before.

关 键 词：2015年 石油供应 石油价格 价格走势 世界 市场供需 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]